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Hi Oliver, this was a fascinating read. However, I have seen several images that purport to show the truck still intact after the explosion happened. It is my understanding that they look at the videos frame by frame, which appears to show the flash of the explosion and the truck unharmed. Could you comment on these? Is there any veracity to them?

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I have seen the video and there are indeed two frames where the explosion started in the top right of screen (and not directly where the truck was) and the truck is still visible. There were also two distinct flashes, which some people have suggested is a thermobaric weapon. The direction of the explosion is consistent with a missile from that direction.

The US is adamant no ATACMs have been supplied but the poor adherence to smoking regulations on Crimean airfields suggest that Ukraine has received small amounts of longer range weapons.

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Video anomalies can be explained by line-by-line scanning of the digital sensor, so at the moment of explosion you get before and after in different parts of the same frame.

ATACAMS can be firmly ruled out by having nowhere near the bang observed. As article above says, it's at best somewhere between one tenth and one fifth of the explosives required.

Hrim-2 would have roughly double as planned, with is still insufficient. In theory, Hrim-2 being artisan prototype could be purpose modified with oversized (termobaric?) warhead, but it's still not quite enough and a very very far stretch, and there's no evidence there was a rocket attack.

I want to believe, but it's extremely unlikely. And we can conclude any presumed rocket had hit the truck, and the truck had to carry explosives anyway to compensate for rocket being too light, making the rocket effectively unnecessary complication.

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I agree, at this time with the evidence we have, the missile seems unlikely as it appears as if it would require a Rube Goldberg set of events to cause the damage we have seen to the bridge.

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Only makes for the luckiest missed shot ever:

- acquire or build a very special weapon (presumably SRBM);

- fire it (at presumably extreme range at ~300km)

- so to not alert air defense of the (presumably one of the best defended) bridge;

- aiming at a fuel train going across said bridge;

- miss the train by quite a lot,

- but hit a random truck on the outer most lane instead

- so its cargo (presumably ammonium nitrate fertilizer) amplify the explosion

- so to crash the road and set the targeted train ablaze anyway.

Pure farce by Gods if that's what happened.

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Very interesting analysis. Is there any theory about the driver and how the explosion was initiated? Driver unaware and explosion detonated remotely killing the driver? Driver fled the truck prior to explosion? Suicide mission?

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Could it have been an accidental detonation of a truckload of Russian explosives being moved into Crimea I.e. a VBIED but not intentionally?

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In theory yes, but it seems unlikely as there is no real reason for Russia to use civilian trucks to move ammunition, especially in this area.

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Hi Oliver, good analysis with new photos (truck stub axel) continuing to point in the same direction. I did a simple evaluation of the position of the truck https://imgur.com/a/JJSsY7v and https://i.imgur.com/3ASCbBs.jpg in relation to the debris field, and base on the damage it seem the center of the explosion would overlap the mid to rear of the truck container. I'm curious what there has been so few analysis or 3D reconstruction of the attack, once you see all the evidence put together this seem a pretty shut case.

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Very detailed illustrations that do a great job explaining the situation. To me it also seems like a pretty shut case unless we see some new evidence that conclusively points to any of the other scenarios, but at this time that seems less and less likely.

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