An analysis of the publicly available evidence where I will attempt to answer some common questions about the incident and point to what I consider the most likely explination.
a) what evidence gives that it was an accident by ukrainian air defense? i haven't seen or heard of a single one, it's just a word, that is always inserted into any statements about the ukrainian missile landing in poland without ever giving any clue to support this.
b) you claim to be an osint specialist. you know what is also osint? the coordinates (longitude, latitude) of the impact site. same goes for the coordinates of lviv and kyev. and guess what, the impact site has exactly the same longitude coordinates as lviv and exactly the same latitude coordinates as kyev, not just nearby or of a suburb, but both directly of the urban area of these 2 main ukrainian cities. no way, that that's some crazy coincidence, just no way. unfortunately, the missile wasn't fired by the russians, as that could have explained this coordinates anomaly with a mix-up when typing in the target coordinates. you're a smart guy, please use your brain and figure out, how this coordinates thing goes together with the fact, that the missile hitting the spot with those funny coordinates in poland, was fired by ukraine. i've come up with only one possible explanation.
IIRC, US anonymous sources first briefly pushed the idea that it was Russian.
If there were no Belarus missile launches - why would UKR fire a S-300?
Impact site is on a line between LVIV and BREST. UKR likely gave S-300 guarding LVIV. Belarus appear to have air Defence unit with S-300 S of BREST.
Could this incident be the result of an engagement between an UKR and a BELARUS S-300 in land attack mode?
BREST area is the only RU loyal/Controlled area from where a S-300 -or ISKANDAR ballistic missile could reach the impact site.
Closest RU border is 580 km from impact site.
An air launched threat could come from anywhere - but likely from the N given the impact point - assuming rhe S-300 flew straight towards the threat
Oliver another good report, my only issue (and probably just me) is the use of the word shrapnel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrapnel_shell