Winter is coming: Gas Storage Scenario Update 14.11.22
Halfway through November and the colder winter weather is approaching. Luckily the German gas stores are about a teaspoon away from being full.
If you enjoy my content, please consider supporting my work here and on Twitter with a premium subscription.
*Update 15/11/2022: A few hours after my post, AGSI adjusted the German gas fill level to 245.4437 TWh, meaning that German gas stores are currently 100.02% full, several sites are above 110%. It appears that they were missing fill numbers from UGS Rehden which is now 95.45% full. Sites are able to be filled above 100% as it is measured in TWh and not cubic meters. As a result storing it at a slightly higher pressure or using more energy dense gas, will allow for more energy to be stored in the same volume.
We are now about halfway through November and the German gas storage levels are amazingly still increasing. On Sunday 13th November gas storage levels were at 99.96% of the working gas volume at German gas storage facilities. At the time of writing this, they may already be passed 100%, but the data is delayed by about 24 hours. This is both the highest fill percentage and total gas storage in German history with 245.3035 TWh in storage out of a current working gas volume of 245.3937 TWh.
The largest German gas storage facility UGS Rehden is currently 94.75% full and climbing. Several of the smaller facilities throughout Germany are currently filled beyond their registered working gas volume, meaning that they are effectively above 100% full. This currently compensates for the lower fill level of UGS Rehden.
After the warmest October in 140 years, the temperature has remained above average for the first half of November. Weather forecasts for the next week indicate that we will probably start seeing an average temperature closer to the norm. This will undoubtedly increase gas expenditure as more people turn on heating in their homes. This will however also begin to give us a much more accurate indication of how much of the current gas savings are temperature related and how much is a conscious energy saving decision.
Gas usage data for week 44 indicates that while temperature is a factor, a sizable chunk of the current savings are not the result of the warmer than average autumn, but a conscious decision by Germans. Total gas usage for week 44 was down -36.43% from the 4 year average, with Household & SLP use being down -44.67% and industry use being down -29.93%. Based on this data I continue to stand by my earlier estimate of a drop of approx. 22-24% in gas usage for household and SLP customers being non-temperature related. For Industry customers, I estimate this at around 18-20%. The question here is how much is done in the interest of saving gas and how much is done due to high gas prices.
Historically the daily net withdrawal of gas from storage has begun during the first or early second week of November. This year Germany has been able to get through the second week and may get a ways into the third week before a net withdrawal happens. This will further aid the gas situation in Germany by effectively shortening the winter period by a week.
This brings me to my updated model below:
As storage has continued to fill beyond historical expectations, normal gas consumption in Germany over the winter will deplete gas stores to around 21.1% in mid April. While this puts Germany into a more precarious position in regards to winter 2023 due to a lack of Russian gas imports, it remains at a higher level than April 2018, where levels dipped to 14.25%. Even this highly unlikely pessimistic scenario keeps gas stores on the right side of the 40% fill on the 1st February target. As with earlier scenario updates, we continue to see a situation where it is hard to imagine a scenario where Germany runs out of gas this winter without a serious reduction in imports, presumably through the sabotage of gas infrastructure. The chance of Germany running out of gas is currently around 0%.
All other scenarios with some gas usage reductions mange to keep Germany at a satisfactory level throughout the winter.
The “Optimistic scenario” has attempted adjust for the temperature related gas savings. With this adjustment, German households and businesses have saved around 22% gas compared to the 4 year average. At the same time German industry, which is less affected by weather and has a more stable gas consumption, has saved around 18%. For the optimistic scenario I have accounted for this, with a decrease in savings to 10% for households and 5% for industry from the beginning of April as the winter and immediate danger passes.
Barring any major crisis (import issues, sabotage, unusually cold weather) I estimate that we will see a scenario between the blue and green dashed lines on the scenario graph. This puts Germany in a good situation for the 2023 winter as well, relieving additional pressure.
Additional information on my scenarios can be read here
It would be interesting if you also included a list of the storage level in each European country. I know that Denmark is now at 100%.