Germany’s Network Regulator's Alarmist View on Gas Usage In These Weeks
This is an addendum to my previous post a reply to the statement by Germany’s Network Regulator on increased Household gas usage in Germany.
**This addendum has also been added to my article titled: Germany’s Gas Supply Looking Better Than Expected This Winter"**
In the past two weeks the household gas usage numbers have been slightly above the 2018-2021 average (14.55% Week 38 and 9.57% Week 39). The head of Germany’s Network Regulator responded to this on Thursday October 6th by stating:
"The numbers for that week are thus very sobering, without significant savings in the private area of consumption, it will be difficult to avoid an emergency situation in winter."
He also posted the following Tweet on Twitter:
This is a very alarmist reaction to these minor increases in Household and Business gas consumption. There are a few factors that need to be considered.
As we have hit the end of September, a large number of people will turn on heating for the first time, the date for the start of this is heavily weather dependent.
While the percentage increase over average for Week 38 and Week 39 looks large, measured in actual GWh’s a day it is a minor jump as gas usage in Germany during these weeks is still only at around 1/4 of peak usage. In week 38 Households and Business’ used 483 GWh per day up from 422 average, an increase of 61 GWh per day. In Week 39 they used 618 GWh per day up from 564 average, an increase of 54 GWh per day.
In contrast, the average usage for Week 4 at the end of January is 2,227 GWh per day and the difference between the minimum and maximum value in the 2018-2021 average is 891 GWh per day.
At this time we are currently talking about such minimal fluctuations that have no real impact in the long term. So far there is no indication that the gas usage will remain above average, especially not the 20% above average as has been stated in some media outlets. It is a tiny fluctuation which has already dropped form 61GWh per day to 54 GWh per day, I expect it to fully disappear in a few weeks as weather over Germany averages out.
Currently the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s models forecast a winter in Germany that will be between 1-2°C above the norm. This is a key factor which I expect will cause the Household and Business gas usage to fall below the 2018-2021 average for the winter. Household and Business gas usage is extremely volatile and for some weeks in the winter the difference between the minimum and maximum value in the 2018-2021 average has been 1500 GWh per day due to temperature fluctuations.
Due to these factors, I still believe that my forecast is accurate based on the information we have at this time, but will of course continue to update it based future events.
