Gas Storage Scenario Update 07.11.22
In the first week of November Germany's gas storage is still filling, but leveling off as it reaches capacity. Germany currently has the most gas in storage ever.
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The first week of November has passed and the German gas storage levels continue to increase. The latest fill data from Sunday November 6th puts the fill percentage of German natural gas storage facilities at 99.54%. This percentage has only been beaten once since 2011, during the second week of November in 2019 when the natural gas fill levels reached 99.65%. The record was set during a time when Germany had less storage capacity though, so total gas storage at that time was 239.6183 TWh compared to 244.1333 TWh in storage on November 6th. This means that Germany currently has the most natural gas in storage facilities that it has ever had.
The unusually warm weather for this period of Autumn across Europe has continued and the temperature prognosis for the next week seems to remain at or above the average. During the next week Germany may be in a position to completely fill its natural gas storage facilities for the first time ever.
Looking at data from the past 11 years, the first and second week in November are historically the week where daily withdrawal from the storage facilities increases to a level that begins to empty the stores. This year, this may be pushed another week or two into the future if the weather keeps up, further aiding the German gas situation.
This brings me to my updated model below:
With the current fill levels, normal gas consumption in Germany over the winter will deplete gas stores to around 18.5% in mid April. While this puts Germany into a more precarious position in regards to winter 2023 due to a lack of Russian gas imports, it remains at a higher level than April 2018, where levels dipped to 14.25%. We continue to see a situation where it is hard to imagine a scenario where Germany runs out of gas this winter without a serious reduction in imports, presumably through the sabotage of gas infrastructure.
All other scenarios with some gas usage reductions mange to keep Germany at a satisfactory level throughout the winter.
Weather will of course continue to have a large impact on the levels of gas savings in Germany over the winter. Using gas usage data from past winters I estimate the weather is currently responsible for approximately 50% of the household reduction in gas expenditure and 15-25% of the industrial gas expenditure.- This means fluctuations in weather can quickly alter the scenarios. Current climate forecasts for the winter continue to point to this winter being warmer than average.
As time goes on, I am starting to believe more and more in my very optimistic, best case scenario becoming increasingly realistic. This scenario has attempted adjust for the temperature related gas savings. With this adjustment, German households and businesses have saved around 22% gas compared to the 4 year average. At the same time German industry, which is less affected by weather and has a more stable gas consumption, has saved around 18%. For the optimistic scenario I have accounted for this, with a decrease in savings to 10% for households and 5% for industry from the beginning of April as the winter passes.