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cl's avatar

Not really a debunking. A fair description is that you've failed to confirm some elements of Hersh's story using open sources.

The times at which public satellites pass over an area are known. If you were trying to spoof AIS covertly, it would be pretty dumb to be in a location discordant with AIS at one of the 6 times in 7 days it would be captured on public satellite images.

Maybe you'll be able to dig up a few more images, but given that you write that the distance between the island and the pipeline location could be covered in approx. 62 minutes (and presumably a trip to NS1 would be even shorter), you'd need a lot more (5x? 10x?) timepoints to convincingly disprove the possibility of spoofing. I think it's pretty dishonest to claim that six instances of concordance in a time period of 168 hours proves 100% concordance, but you write the rest of your articles assuming 100% concordance.

You also don't show us the AIS data for the Hinnoy before June 8th and after June 15th, unlike the other ships where you supposedly show their entire paths for the month, would love to see that data too.

Do you have AIS tracking data for the Karmoy? You mention it's with the Alta by June 29th, but what about earlier in the month?

It's also not clearly stated in your articles whether the non-Hinnoy vessels had AIS switched on at all times during the exercises, would love for that to be cleared up. If they did and were verified by satellite ~daily, we could probably rule out the non-Hinnoy/Karmoy vessels as Bergen is too far away. All bets are off if there are periods of >2 days without satellite confirmation, though.

I've seen your response that "the entire story Hersh is trying to build is that BALTOPS22 was a cover for the divers[, which] would be pointless if they [switched off/spoofed AIS]":

Hersh claims that most of the nations nearby were in on the plan in one form or another (Sweden, Denmark, Norway), and we don't know how others (Germany, Poland, NATO exercise participants) would react to some ship involved in exercises having discrepancies between radar and AIS. You don't establish in any of your articles thus far whether a discrepancy between radar and AIS for some ship would be detected/noticed by nearby ships or nations, let alone that it would set off alarms, let alone alarms to the extent that the ship would be investigated, let alone that Norway/USA/Sweden/Denmark couldn't come up with some satisfying-enough justification.

Same goes for the idea that the NATO ships in formation "would have noticed if the KMN Hinnøy had shut off AIS and then left the formation at full speed towards the location [of] the Nord Stream 1 leaks". Would they? What if it was said to be part of the exercise? You can't just assert things.

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No Beret's avatar

By the time you are done, the only thing in the Hersh article that may survive is the mention of undersea explosions.

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